How to trade earnings using Fly?

Hi,
In this post, I am attempting to use a butterfly to trade earnings. Stock I am using is SNDK.
The earnings expectation has shot up the IV of the options. Earnings on 20 April.
Fly benefits from a IV crush.
However, a high IV implies that traders are expecting a big move in stock. So ATM fly is ruled out.
How about a directional fly? Sounds like a good idea.
But, for fly to make money, you need to be right on direction, expected price and time.
In this case, I am willing to bet as follows:
Direction: Up
Expected Price: Previous major resistance
Time: Around earnings
To back up my 'prediction' I will have to risk money.. so there you go:



I am willing to risk $40 per contract to test my prediction. If I am right, $$$$$$, but what if I am WRONG?

Who cares... I manage that question by making sure my max loss is small.

Happy Trading
Trader R